Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for EIGHTEEN-21 in Australia from 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC to 04 Feb 2021 18:00 UTC

04 Feb 2021 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.3 m (05 Feb 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)
Landfall	between 31 Jan 2021 12:00 - 31 Jan 2021 18:00 in Australia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	1.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	65 km/h	1.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 49000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 12:00	93	Few people	No people	Australia
2	31 Jan 2021 18:00	93	Few people	No people	Australia
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	93	4 thousand	No people	Australia
4	01 Feb 2021 06:00	93	10 thousand	No people	Australia
5	01 Feb 2021 12:00	102	10 thousand	No people	Australia
6	01 Feb 2021 18:00	93	60 thousand	No people	Australia
7	02 Feb 2021 00:00	93	1.9 million	No people	Australia
8	02 Feb 2021 06:00	83	2.1 million	No people	Australia
9	02 Feb 2021 12:00	83	1.9 million	No people	Australia
10	02 Feb 2021 18:00	74	1.2 million	No people	Australia
11	03 Feb 2021 00:00	65	5 thousand	No people	Australia
12	03 Feb 2021 06:00	65	8 thousand	No people	Australia
13	03 Feb 2021 12:00	74	50 thousand	No people	Australia
14	03 Feb 2021 18:00	65	60 thousand	No people	Australia
15	04 Feb 2021 00:00	65	8 thousand	No people	Australia
16	04 Feb 2021 06:00	65	10 thousand	No people	Australia
17	04 Feb 2021 12:00	65	7 thousand	No people	Australia
18	04 Feb 2021 18:00	74	50 thousand	No people	Australia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.4, 121.1
2	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.3, 119.8	Australia
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-20.6, 119	Australia
4	01 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-20.6, 119	Australia
5	01 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.1, 118.1	Australia
6	01 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.5, 117.1	Australia
7	02 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-22.1, 116.2	Australia
8	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-22.9, 115.7	Australia
9	02 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.6, 115.1	Australia
10	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-24.2, 114.5	Australia
11	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.7, 114.3	Australia
12	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.9, 114.3	Australia
13	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.9, 114.5	Australia
14	03 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.8, 114.8	Australia
15	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-24.3, 114.3	Australia
16	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	5900 people	-24.4, 113.7	Australia
17	04 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	6400 people	-24.6, 113.4	Australia
18	04 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	5700 people	-24.8, 113.1
18	05 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	8300 people	-25.3, 112.7
18	05 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	49000 people	-26.3, 112.6
18	06 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-27.7, 112.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Australia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Western Australia	Australia

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Geraldton	Western Australia	Australia	City	27000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Carnarvon	CVQ	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5500
Useless Loop	USL	unknown				0
Shark Bay	MJK	34	Priv.	Paved	No	5500
Kalbarri	KAX	unknown				0
Geraldton	GET	37	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Carnarvon	AUCVQ	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Cuvier		Coral Sea Islands
Denham		Coral Sea Islands
Useless Loop	AUUSL	Coral Sea Islands
Hamelin Pool		Coral Sea Islands
Bluff Point		Coral Sea Islands
Port Gregory		Coral Sea Islands
Geraldton	AUGET	Coral Sea Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.3m in Denham, Australia. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2021 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (31 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 04 Feb 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2021 21:00	Denham	Australia	1.3
	06 Feb 2021 02:00	Tamala	Australia	1.3
	06 Feb 2021 02:00	Useless Loop	Australia	1.3
	06 Feb 2021 00:00	Nanga	Australia	1.1
	05 Feb 2021 21:00	Shark Bay	Australia	0.8
	05 Feb 2021 15:00	Dirk Hartog	Australia	0.7
	04 Feb 2021 09:00	Mardie	Australia	0.4
	05 Feb 2021 14:00	Carnarvon	Australia	0.4
	05 Feb 2021 14:00	Learmonth	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 09:00	Wickham	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 09:00	Point Samson	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 09:00	Cossack	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 08:00	East Lewis I	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 10:00	Condon	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 14:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 12:00	Glenroy	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 20:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2021 06:00	Kalbarri	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2021 06:00	Gregory	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2021 03:00	Cardabia	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2021 05:00	Carrarang	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 20:00	Broome	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 08:00	Cape Cuvier	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 14:00	Exmouth	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2021 05:00	Warroora	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 09:00	Ah Chong I	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2021 06:00	Lynton	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 20:00	Waterbank	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 07:00	Gnaraloo	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 20:00	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Quobba	Australia	0.1